Abstract:

Climatic potential productivity (CPP) was calculated and population carrying capacity was evaluated for China using Thornthwaite Memorial model and annual temperature and precipitation data from a new gridded daily dataset (CN05.1),in order to further enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change and the greatest possible supporting capacity of climate resources.The results show that the annual CPP increased dramatically,and the mutation point was in 1987,with a minimum of 689.18 g·m^-2·a^-1,a maximum of 814.56 g·m^-2·a^-1 and a mean of 744.05 g·m^-2·a^-1 from 1961 to 2010.The CPP varied in different regions with a zonal distribution of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast of China.Regions with the CPP larger than 1800 g·m^-2·a^-1 were distributed in most areas of South China,with the highest value of 2103.56 g·m^-2·a^-1.Regions with the CPP lower than 300 g·m^-2·a^-1 were mainly distributed in western and northern China,with the lowest value of 39.28 g·m^-2·a^-1.The area with an increasing of the CPP (82%) was larger than that with a decreasing of the CPP (17%) over 2001-2010,relative to 1961-2010.However,the magnitude of variations in most areas in China was very small relative to 1961- 2010,with relatively greater variations distributed in the western and northern China.The climatic potential population carrying capacities of croplands in China ranged from 46 to 2180 persons/km² from 1995 to 2010,with annual average values of no less than 1130 persons/km².The actual population ranged from 0 to 49729 persons/km²,with annual average value of no more than 137 persons/km².The ratio of actual total population to climatic potential population carrying capacities was in the range of 58%-65%.The actual productivity of croplands was less than climatic potential productivity,and the actual population was not beyond the scope of climatic potential population carrying capacities in most areas of China.Therefore,there is a certain potential for climatic potential productivity to be developed.The actual population has exceeded the climatic potential population carrying capacities in Qinghai,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai and much attention should be paid to these areas.

Key words: Climatic potential productivity, Population carrying capacity, Cropland, Thornthwaite Memorial model